Latest COT positioning revealed an increase in open interest, while shorts retreated and longs increased. This is great news and could lead to AUD turning net positive. A catalyst for further AUD appreciation could be provided by 3rd of May housing stats, where a rebound in data is likely.
Furthermore, U.S. delegation visiting China to negotiate trade will go a long way to boost global risk sentiment. Should talk smooth trade war worries. In such a scenario AUDJPY upside potential is immense, as this pair accurately represents investors risk appetite. Coupled with relief from N.K. positive political resolve.
The risk to the trade
Should global risk sour or White House strike trade negative tones, again. Shorts could weigh in and attract long covering.
We’re seeing AUDJPY much higher in the medium term. We are hunting 1D&4h IBs to go long targeting 84 area and should COT data support, a climb to 88+.