Euro and pound are taking the centre stage this week. ECB monetary policy and British snap elections ensure volatility galore
Euro has been trading higher accompanied by COT longs. As more and more investors are drawn towards EZ. However ECBs Draghi might not like the rapid surge as it will hurt his inflation targets(higher euro=cheaper imports and cheaper goods= lower inflation,in addition lower export competitiveness). His comments will be key for a break higher or drop lower.
Pound is under heavy pressure. Terror attacks coupled with narrowing polls and possible hung parliament will continue to make it bleed until the votes are out. Intraday shorts and selling rallies could turn out to be very profitable.
Oil is finding a bid on the back of better EIA data last week and Persian Gulf escalation with Qatar. However path is to the downside, every rally is an opportunity to load on shorts. (oil; what’s still to come setting the score for H2 )
Gold is an uphill struggle at the moment. There are no key drivers to lend it a hand up the ladder. With a rate hike coming next week further consolidation is in place.
Good luck to us all
Miad Kasravi
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