The New Rules of Timing Alt Seasons

Altcoin (alt) seasons are among the most exhilarating times in the cryptocurrency market. These periods of explosive altcoin growth have historically been guided by patterns—patterns we can observe and interpret to position ourselves for maximum gains.
Today, we’ll explore the forces at play behind these cycles and why macroeconomic factors, like the Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR), could give you an edge. Understanding the interplay between Tether (USDT) dominance, Bitcoin (BTC) dominance, and the ETH/BTC pair has been under the radar.

Decoding the Role of the EFFR

What connects Federal Reserve interest rates to altcoins? Everything.

The EFFR isn’t just a dry economic metric. It’s the pulse of U.S. monetary policy—and it creates flows that eventually leak into the crypto markets. Our research shows that changes in EFFR lead shifts in BTC and USDT dominance by roughly 60 weeks.

When rates are hiked, liquidity dries up, and dominance metrics climb. But when the Fed starts cutting rates, the opposite happens: BTC and USDT dominance decline, paving the way for altcoin rallies. This lag effect isn’t speculation; it’s a pattern with historical precedent.

Example in Action:
March 2020 marked the start of the last significant rate-cutting cycle. By 2021, the dominance of stablecoins like USDT began declining, and a massive altcoin rally ignited, with ETH/BTC acting as the market’s leader.

Identifying Inflection Points
The pivot points in monetary policy hold the key. These are moments when the Federal Reserve moves from hiking to cutting rates—or vice versa. Understanding this timing is crucial for predicting when altcoin markets might heat up.

Here’s what history teaches us:

2020: Fed rate cuts led to a downtrend in dominance metrics and unleashed a powerful alt season.
2022: A hiking cycle saw BTC regain dominance, as tighter liquidity favored safer assets like Bitcoin and stablecoins.

Fast forward to 2024: With the Fed begun a rate-cutting cycle again, we’re already seeing cracks in dominance metrics. This suggests that the anticipated grand alt season rally may take shape by late 2025, leading to several months of aggressive dip buying opportunities and significant new wealth creation.

The Roadmap to 2025 and Beyond

To position yourself successfully for the grand alt rally, it’s essential to have the right tools to identify which altcoins are poised to rally—because not all will. You need an entry strategy tailored to altcoin volatility, robust enough to ride out market fluctuations. Our approach leverages predefined price ranges provided by none other than the Fed, allowing us to navigate local volatility, enter trades at value levels, and patiently await the impending lift-off.

While the core of this strategy is simple, effective execution—especially with its impressive 90% strike rate—requires experience and dedication. By investing the time now to learn the strategy, you can prepare for the major rally ahead, refining your approach before the main event unfolds in the coming months.

We have a clear roadmap, targeting September 2025 to December 2025. The foundation of our strategy is using Fed ranges to manage volatility and capitalize on opportunities. To truly master this approach, gaining practical experience is key. Our trading room offers an environment to learn, refine your strategy, and receive real-time feedback. You can join us here.

The final step in leveraging the upcoming alt rally is choosing the right altcoins to trade. There’s a proven method to identify the best candidates, but I’ll cover that in a follow-up article to keep this concise. The next phase is all about taking informed actions that put you ahead of the curve. As a bonus, I will include all the alts that were requested.

Here’s our proven framework for positioning yourself for the next grand alt season:

Track Dominance Metrics: Keep an eye on BTC and USDT dominance.
Leverage Historical Lags: Utilize the 60-week delay between EFFR changes and dominance block correlation.
Choose the Right Altcoins: Not all altcoins will rise—we use a proven selection method.
Use Smart Entry Strategies: Fed ranges to weather market volatility and ride the trend when it comes.

Our trading methodology, honed over years of market observation, uses predefined price ranges informed by macroeconomic shifts. These ranges act as guardrails, helping you ride trends. The altcoin market is cyclical—but those cycles aren’t random. Aligning your strategy with macro trends like EFFR shifts keeps you ahead of the curve.

We anticipate 2025 will be a landmark year for altcoins—a period of aggressive buying opportunities and the potential for massive wealth creation.