AUD has technically created a base, around 0.70 level on the back of Trump announcing his willingness to cut a deal with China after the G20 summit by the end of November. This could be the beginning of the end to the trade war story. This would bode very well for the Australian dollar as risk-on flows would pick up.
China is actively stimulating its own economy via liquidity injection and infrastructure spending. Which prompts increased raw material imports from Australia and thus aids the economy and AUD.
Australian Dollar has been trading much lower than Australian commodity price index. Usually, AUD tracks local commodity prices closely. A recoupling would transpire in a 3-5% (200-350 pips) rise in AUD against major pairs.
Regression Linear of AUDUSD against AUS200 has an encouraging relation , and both series are cointegrated. Current series cover up until end of October.
Below is the same regression including latest prices. Evidently that a clear distortion is happening and the opportunity to exploit by exposing 1 buy lot in AUDUSD and short 0.6 lots of AUS200, denominate in USD.
Applying statistics and our core knowledge of COT data, commercials (the guys responsible for trend changes) are active on the sell side again. These guys are counter-trend traders. So most of the time when we see commercials arresting buys and start selling, down trends flip to the upside. And we are pretty much at this point. There is a great possibility that price gravitates around current levels for some days before it starts to rallying.
We used Phillips-Perron and Augmented Dickey-Fuller test to check the possibility of a stationary series for commercials net position and both return positive. We can accurately calculate how long it takes for the series to cross from zero to its peak using Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process. This gave us 30 weeks, and guess what, last week was the 30th week above zero.So it’s possible that a bottom is in place and we are ready to take off.
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LEO HERMOSO&MIAD KASRAVI